I went to Ambassador Dennis Ross‘ lecture last night. He is on his The Missing Piece book tour. Here are my notes from the evening. Even though he is not officially a negotiator he still goes 4-5 times a year to the Middle East. He always sees leaders on both sides. In the past they had to listen to him, now they can choose to do it.Last time he was coming back from the region on a midnight flight. The person next to him told that he reminded him of this story:
In a 19th century shtetl a father’s daughter was planning to get married to a young man who didn’t have a job. So the father asked the rabbi what to do. The rabbi told he would give a job to the young lad: have him blow the shofar when the Messiah arrives. The father asked: How much will it pay? The answer: 5 rubles, which is not much, but it is a lifetime employment.
Why did he write the book?
- Wanted the reader to see the emotional rollercoaster? Get a feel of the moments of drama? No, but you’ll get that.
- To give a portrait of every leader and the negotiators, what makes them tick, what constrains them? No, but you’ll get that.
- To show how close we came? By showing a map where Israelis were ready to withdraw in the Golan heights (4 Israeli PM were ready to do it)
The only issue was the strip of land to the water, measured in meters. No. - To understand every issue between Israeli and Palestinians and Syrians, how they view them. No
- The reason: because the Middle East is a region is consumed with myth and mythology. Everybody lives in their myths and not in reality. They are more comfortable with their myths and not to adjust to reality. You cannot make peace by reconciling myths. Only realities. It is about debunking myths.
Second reason: You also have to learn a lesson form it. You have to understand where we were wrong and right. - It is a hopeful book. He was very committed. His wife said: “You should have been committed.”
Some of the myths are exposed in this book:
- Palestinians didn’t make concessions: it was never heard from Yasser Arafat. But from the negotiators:
1. 3 Israeli settlements block were accepted in the West Bank.
2. All the Jewish neighborhood in East Jerusalem would belong to Israel.
3. They accepted limited Israeli security presence in the West Bank.– Why is it important:
1. Israelis need to know about it. (There is no peace process right now. They think there is no Palestinian partner.)
2. Palestinians need to know it. National level, authentic leaders were ready to do it.
- Second myth: Yasser Arafat said no Palestinians would accept the Israeli offer. He showed a map to the world what he was offered, but it is not the same what was really offered at Camp David. 100% of Gaza, 97% of West Bank, all the Arab neighborhoods of East Jerusalem was offered.
- Isn’t it true what Arafat was offered, the Palestinians people couldn’t accept it? If that’s true why did he lie about it to his people?
His book is sold out in East Jerusalem.
Largest Palestinian Newspaper ran a full page on it. It contributed to the debate there.
Each side has to adjust their behavior, what we learned from it:
- Arab leaders: all the ones the Ambassador met accepted the fact of Israel. It is not sufficient, because then all you are doing is accepting that it is there. When you accept that it has a right to be there, you also accept that it has needs. (Negotiations are about adjustments.)
March 26 2000: A map was presented to Arafat, showing that Israelis withdraw from the Golan heights. Arab leaders didn’t acknowledge it; they didn’t say it’s nice. “No concession form the Israeli side can be ever big enough.”
“If Israel is only a fact, then it is OK to attack. ”
Give a chance to succeed. Legitimize mutual compromise. Condemn Hamas by name for their terrorist attack - Israelis have to adjust (the idea) to give up control of Palestinian lives. Psychological change: Palestinians VIPs were late from negotiations in Israel because they were hold up and angry. Occupation becomes a habit (it was not malicious). “Israelis become first.”- mentality. Siege stops attack, but makes Palestinians lives terrible. It suffocates them, cannot move. Controlling their lives is a recruiting tool for Hamas. “Freedom of terror for Israelis and Freedom of Israeli control for Palestinians.”
- Deligitimize terror as an acceptable policy
- Arafat’s: Renounced terror, but never discredited it before coming to Oslo. This is the problem. Punishments of those who are violating it. He did crack down on time to time on Hamas. He arrested the leaders, replaced all the imams in the West Bank. Never said: “Killing Israelis is wrong. It is against Palestinians interest. They are against our cause.” They were martyrs. This is bad for practical and not moral reasons. Terror destroyed, undid the peace process. This legacy has to be overcome.
- On Arafat: “being a victim is a strategy and not a condition”. “Every defeat is a victory, because you survive. You never make mistakes. You don’t have to be accountable.”
- Good news: There is a Palestinian reform movement. Their watchword is “accountability.” When they have to govern themselves after Israelis remove from West Bank. Challenge and opportunity to bring order out of chaos, to show we can go on our own, prove that they can be responsible and fill their obligations. If the model is good for Gaza it can be used in the West Bank.
- Bad news. Palestinian reformers are fractionalized.
- Egyptians have a stake. If Gaza becomes islamist as Egypt’s neighbor it can be a problem.
- 1000 dead Israelis, 3000 Palestinians in the last 3 and half years. War process.
- Israel lost more lives lost than in their 2 wars.
- Psychological consequence. There is no stability.
- US disengaged: prevented a war.
- We have to adjust, by becoming involved again. If they have only a dialogue of violence, we have to provide the dialogue of peace for them.
Scenario 1:
Arafat wants to show that THEY forced Israel to withdraw. US sits on the sideline. Sharon will withdraw but won?t allow Israel to be humiliated. They will put a devastating blow onto Palestinians. This process will not be self implementing for peace. Results: Israel will not get credit for withdrawal; Palestinian reformers will be forced to background; new confrontation line.
Scenario 2: two things we have to do:
1. Go to Sharon: tell him that our stake is that Palestinian reformers will be in power. What kind of steps need to be taken to achieve that?
2. Palestinian PM and key leaders: Israel is ready to turn the power over to you. And tell us what you need form the outside, from us.
+ Condition the environment for this move. Get European and Arab leaders to establish a public posture. Doing everything in private doesn’t work. Expose those who want violence. Sooner rather than later. Make clear who is jeopardizing the peace process. Arafat is a creature of the street.